CBOT wheat futures rose on Friday, bouncing back up after rainy forcasts earlier in the week for southern Russia were rolled back. Funds bought 7.500 contracts. Russia’s IKAR agricultural consultancy lowered its estimate for this year’s Russian wheat production from 93 to 91 million tonnes and its export estimate for 2024/25 from 52 to 50,5 million tonnes. Average-to-cool temperatures are expected for southern Russia in the first half of May, following record april warmth. The cooldown could be the key in avoiding significant crop losses amid an unusually dry spring. Southern Russia grows more than 30 percent of the country’s annual wheat crop. As of April 30 funds were 11,7 million tonnes short in wheat futures. Technically, July wheat may meet resistance at $ 6,35.
CBOT corn futures closed slightly higher as floods hit southern Brazil and disease and strikes affected crops in Argentina. Funds bought 4.000 contracts. Based on the current export pace of US corn and outstanding sales as of April 25 total 2023/24 exports may reach 1.900 million bushels at best, compared with the current official estimate of 2.100 million bushels. As of april 30 funds were 29,2 million tonnes short in corn futures. Technically, July corn may meet resistance between $ 4,65 and $ 4,70.
ICE canola futures finished higher for the third straight day, lifted by soybean strength and technical buying. July canola added $ 10,10 to settle at $ 647. Next Tuesday Statistics Canada will release its stocks report as of March 31. Canola stocks are estimated at 8,3 million tonnes on average, within the range 7,7-9,2 million tonnes, and compared with 7 million tonnes in 2023. As of end March exports of canola are lagging last year’s pace by 1,84 million tonnes. Technically, canola may finally test its support around $ 600 again.
CBOT soybean futures rose on Friday, as flooding impacted the unharvested beans in Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul state. Potential losses are estimated between 1 and 2 million tonnes. Funds bought 6.500 contracts of soybeans and 4.000 contracts of soymeal, but sold 1.000 contracts of soyoil. As of April 30 funds were 22 million tonnes short in soybeans, 2,4 million tonnes short in soyoil and 4 million tonnes long in soymeal. Technically July soybeans may meet resistance between $ 12,30 and $ 12,50. Crude oil declined by 84 cents to $ 78,11, with support at $ 77,56.
Bron: Stigevo